Assessing the Economic Impacts of Disruption to Global Positioning System (GPS) Services

Abstract

The Global Position System (GPS) is a satellite-based system that provides precise positioning, navigation, and time determination to many economic actors. As space weather increases in frequency and intensity due to changing space conditions, the risk of potential satellite damage underscores the importance of understanding the economic effects that GPS failures can have on key industries. While advancements in technologies, such as Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience (CISA) vulnerability assessments, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) profiles, and the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) calculator have provided valuable insight into the risks and importance associated with Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services, there remains a significant gap in knowledge in the potential economic costs of disruption at different time intervals. Despite past extensive documentation on sectoral dependencies on PNT systems, we lack quantitative modeling that provides industrial sectors with crucial information of expected losses from GPS disruptions. This study includes a time-sequenced quantitative model of effects in different time scenarios due to GPS disruptions for the top 20 industries in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). This is achieved by identifying sector-specific dependencies on GPS, and then estimating the economic impacts for various time interval outages, accounting for each sector's contribution to US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By mapping and analyzing the potential consequences of GPS disruption, this study aims to inform future risk assessments, policymaking, and aid further research in GPS resilient infrastructure.