Novel AI-Augmented Simulation Games for Water Security and Resilience

Abstract

Water scarcity is a growing global concern, particularly in agricultural regions where drought conditions threaten social stability. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and state-level water resource boards (WRBs) may offer monetary and non-monetary incentives to guide farmers toward socially beneficial and resilient water use. However, the complexity of interdependencies within agricultural water systems and human responses makes it difficult for NGOs and WRBs to optimize incentive schemes. We developed a simulation using the Godot game engine to reflect the roles NGOs and WRBs may play in water management during drought seasons. This single-player simulation models water distribution dynamics among three AI-controlled farms—upstream, midstream, and downstream—along a shared river in a drought-prone rural region. The player assumes the role of an NGO or a state WRB, offering seasonal monetary incentives over eight simulated seasons to influence farmer behavior under variable water availability. Each farmer AI agent operates based on unique attributes, including water permit volume, efficiency, stored water, robustness, welfare, and satisfaction thresholds. Farms independently decide whether to accept incentives, how much river water to use or store, and how to deploy stored water during short-term droughts. Key game mechanics, such as upstream-first water allocation and decentralized storage decisions, capture real-world challenges in achieving collective water resilience. Global variables such as supply, stored supply, efficiency, robustness, and social welfare allow comparison between player strategies and a game-theoretic baseline. Preliminary results suggest the system effectively illustrates trade-offs between individual decision-making and collective resilience. Ultimately, maintaining water resilience and social welfare in such systems requires not only effective incentive design but also a systems-level understanding of interdependent water use.