Discovering the Trend and Patterns of Wildland Fires in USA and the Role of Climate Change

Abstract

With rising global temperatures due to climate change, the risk of wildland fires has grown more significantly as a result of dry and warm weather conditions, especially in the western United States. Understanding the trends and patterns of wildland fire occurrences is crucial for effective land management to mitigate the severe impacts of such fires. The objective of this project is to discover the temporal and spatial patterns of wildland fires across the USA and explore how these patterns relate to climate change. In this study, we examined large wildland fire incidents in the USA from 1984 to 2024, alongside satellite remote sensing data on air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, all of which are intimately linked to fire ignition. After 2000, while the number of wildland fires has been relatively less than in the previous two decades, there has been a notable rise in the extent of areas burned. The eastern states experience a higher number of fire incidents, and these fires tend to be significantly smaller compared to those in the western states, so we focus on climate change analysis in the western states. The quantitative evaluation of temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation indicates a correlation between dry conditions and the size of burned areas by wildland fires. Further investigation in this field could develop a machine learning-based model to forecast the severity of damage caused by wildfires, utilizing climate data derived from satellite remote sensing observations and simulations, which would support government agencies and related communities in land management and fire preparation strategies.