Multimodal Freight Network Estimates $58.9M Rerouting Loss in Virginia from Hurricane Helene Flooding

Abstract

Simulation of multimodal freight networks is frequently used to investigate the consequences

of disruptions such as hazards to the transportation network in the U.S. Due to the rise of extreme weather events, this paper develops a pipeline that quantifies economic losses of rerouting from hazards based on observed flood records. We applied the model to a simulation of Hurricane Helene where flood intensity records in Virginia were used to assign appropriate recovery times for impacted rail and road segments. Guelat’s Gauss-Seidel Linear Approximation rerouted commodities in the network on available paths and economic losses from rerouting were calculated. Results show that 375 damaged network segments in Virginia raised costs by $58.9 million over 120 days. Although 65% of segments were recovered between days 7 and 21, this delivered little further benefit, as slow restoration rails contributed to approximately 30% of the loss, indicating that restoration sequence is essential. This framework differentiates recovery times by asset class and damage severity using published restoration distributions, and ultimately calculates losses from rerouting commodity flows. This data-driven process can be applied to hazard scenarios in risk-prone areas to identify crucial components of the network for freight transportation.