Regional Adaptation of C-SWIM for Virginia: Grid Vulnerability, Economic Impact, and Data-Driven Mitigation Under Geomagnetic Storm Scenarios

Abstract

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) pose a major threat to power grid infrastructure, yet current risk assessments are inadequate for regional analysis that can inform targeted mitigation. The Coupled Space Weather Impact Model (C-SWIM) presents a novel end-to-end pipeline that maps geomagnetic storm scenarios to power grid and economic impact. This paper presents the first state-level adaptation of C-SWIM for the state of Virginia to identify major risks in the power grid and their economic ramifications at a regional level, yielding actionable findings for future mitigation. The extra-high voltage (EHV) network model for the Virginia + PJM interconnection region was constructed and used for GIC simulations of 92 historical storms. The results identified the Virginia substations with the greatest risk of failure under varying storm scenarios. The pipeline concluded with economic analysis, in which Ghosh and Leontief models were used to assess consumption and production disruption: a 100-year storm is projected to cost Virginia $145.5M/day, rising to $230.6M/day under a 250-year event. Based on the results of the adapted Virginia pipeline, a DC blocker optimization algorithm was developed to determine optimal placement of DC blockers across the Virginia power grid for mitigation under a set budget. Overall, this paper presents a framework for in-depth regional analysis of major space weather risks, from physical power-grid failure to economic impacts, as well as an actionable mitigation plan via DC blocker placement.