Multi-Hazard Exposure Shows Modest and Spatially Variable Agreement with Observed U.S. Power Outages

Abstract

The U.S. high-voltage power transmission network is vital to modern society, providing bulk electricity across the nation.

However, high-voltage infrastructure is oftentimes left vulnerable to natural hazards such as earthquakes, wind, floods,

and beyond. Previous work by Bor et al. (2026) developed a comparative multi-hazard risk assessment model to analyze

hazard impacts on a standardized basis and generate hazard-specific exposure metrics. This study evaluates Bor et al.

(2026) by addressing a critical question: How effectively does the model identify areas with greater observed power

outage frequency? Using MHTran model hazard exposure metrics and EAGLE-I outage data from 2014–2025, this study

implemented a three-stage validation framework: first, exposure metrics were evaluated against observed outage

frequency and severity; second, exposure metrics were compared against hazard-specific EAGLE-I outages attributed

using the NOAA Storm Events Database; finally, exposure metrics were integrated to form a composite multi-hazard risk

score and evaluated using Spearman correlation, hotspot overlap, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). In

the final integrated validation, the Spearman correlation showed a statistically significant positive association ρ = 0.266

with a p-value < 0.001. In addition, results identified an 8% hotspot overlap and spatially varying GWR coefficients

ranging from -2.50 to 3.59. Overall, the MHTran model moderately captures spatial patterns of power outage

occurrences. Although the framework may have potential as a risk-screening tool, it should be incorporated alongside

grid properties, utility maintenance, and infrastructure resilience for improved effectiveness.