Modeling Future Spread of COVID-19 in Different U.S. States in Light of Disparate Vaccination Rates and the Delta Variant's Rise

Abstract

This project assesses the COVID-19 pandemic's future in the United States in light of the Delta variant's rise and disparate vaccination rates across U.S. states..The project uses a differential equations-based approach to model Delta-driven case surges in three states, Alabama, Massachusetts, and Virginia, forecasting the extent of these surges under three scenarios (no further vaccination, continuing current vaccination rates, and doubling current rates)..The analysis suggests that the intersection of Delta's rise with epidemiologically inadequate rates of new vaccinations across U.S. states poses the biggest challenge the United States has yet faced in putting the COVID-19 pandemic on a path to exhaustion..In Alabama, for example, continuation of current vaccination rates would, without reintroducing other major public health interventions, leave the state on course to reach case numbers within the next 60 days almost certainly exceeding the capacity of its hospitals to treat all seriously ill patients..Barring stringent renewal of public health interventions (with all their related economic and social costs), a national vaccine mandate is likely to be essential to getting ahead of Delta's rise in the United States.