Terrorism in Colombia: The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN)

Abstract

Colombia has been in continuous civil turmoil since gaining independence from Spain in 1810. With the inauguration of former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe in 2002, the past 14 years have been the longest period of sustained military action against violent extremist groups in Colombia. The goal of this study is to analyze how attack intensity values have varied over time, as well as whether high attack intensity values are becoming more spatially clustered within Colombia through time. Attack intensity values over time were measured, as well as a global Moran’s I and cluster & outlier analysis. Results indicate that the average attack intensity ratings during the period of Álvaro Uribe’s Presidency were significantly lower than before and after his presidency. It was also found that attack intensity values were randomly distributed from 2012 – 2014.