Monitoring Drought in the Horn of Africa (HOA) with the NASA MODIS ET and NDVI Products

Abstract

The Horn of Africa (HOA) is currently grappling with an urgent drought situation, resulting in severe water and food insecurity and natural resource crises. To address this challenge, this research focuses on tracking drought conditions in the HOA region using Evapotranspiration (ET) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A significant knowledge gap exists in the understanding of drought patterns as climate change is constantly changing the pattern. This study seeks to fill this gap by utilizing satellite remote sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) modeling data. The research incorporates the analysis of ET indices from 2000 to 2023, analyzing the temporal trend of vegetation health and assessing the severity of extreme drought events. Additionally, the study explores the relationship between ET, NDVI, and drought during the wet season, focusing on March to June, and the dry season, focusing on December to March in the HOA. The results reveal the substantial impact of drought on vegetation health and agricultural productivity, with ET and NDVI declining significantly after major droughts, indicating the urgency for improved drought resilience and adaptation strategies in the region. Through this study, important revelations are made concerning the monitoring and comprehension of drought dynamics in the Horn of Africa (HOA), offering essential implications for the Africa Water-Energy-Food-Health (AWEFH) Nexus and the management of natural resources.